Why Evidence still doesn't Change your Mind

I've often stated that we don't engage in political discourse here on The Walkabout. But truth be said, unless we have successfully transitioned into sovereign individuals and managed to go seasteading in international waters, politics will continue to adversely affect our lives.

In Kenya, we voted for the current leadership in August 2017. The process itself took much longer, thanks to a repeat Presidential election on October 2017. You'd then assume that Kenyans would have made better choices after witnessing the institutionalized corruption, impunity in wastage of public resources, shameless embezzlement and wanton plunder from public coffers. The years between 2013 and 2017 should have served as a lesson that neccessitated changes but not much changed. Kenyans went again and voted for different monkeys from the same forest.

This failure to correctly judge situations, to repeat the same mistakes is often driven by a number of factors. Some of the causes have publicly been shared by scholars in the past, let's have a dig at some of the reasons we so hopelessly fail at making value decisions.


Odds and Value Estimation

As outlined on the Farnam Street blog, Dan Gilbert says that humans are works in progress who mistakenly think they're finished. In other words, we wrongly imagine the same person we are today is the same person we shall be till death.

In his 2005 TED Talk, Dan Gilbert explored why we make bad decisions.
For starters, the expected value of any action is a product of the odds that one will gain something from the act, and the gain in value i.e.

Expected Value = Odds of Gain x Value of Gain.

But it turns out that we usually attach value to things based on their past value, instead of the current value on the basis of context. In other words, based on what is possible.

It is quite an interesting and insightful talk, which ends with this thought-provoking statement:

We underestimate the odds of our future pains, and overestimate the value of our present pleasures.


Confirmation Bias

This refers to the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs and theories.

Writing in The New Yorker, Elizabeth Colbert points to limitations of reason, with the desire to win arguments taking precedence over straight thinking.
It so happens that when we form impressions, they persist and stay with us.

But there's a reason why once we form beliefs and the evidence for such beliefs has been totally refuted, we don't make appropriate revisions in such beliefs.
One explanation of this, is how evolution has fashioned us into social beings who collaborate and live in groups.

Accordingly, it is all about cooperation. And as James Clear writes:

We don't always believe things because they are correct. Sometimes we belief things because they make us look good to the people we care about. 

This is why we continue to hold on to beliefs that are factually false, but socially accurate.



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We have in the past talked about trying to wash our hands in dirty water, or just being blind with one's eyes wide open. Humans seem to be irresistibly lured by things that actually harm them, things that may seem good, but aren't beneficial. Toxic things.

We Think too Much and Feel too Little

Late last night, I was burning the midnight oil (not working, but on a YouTube binge).  And it was all fun and games until I clicked on the this compilation video, from which we get this:





There isn't much to add to this video, really. It's from the 1940 film 'The Good Dictator' - an American political satire comedy-drama directed by Charlie Chaplin.
But several parts of this speech easily jump out at you, and make you reconsider.


We don’t want to hate and despise one another. In this world there is room for everyone. And the good earth is rich and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful, but we have lost the way.

Greed has poisoned men’s souls, has barricaded the world with hate, has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed, but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical. Our cleverness, hard and unkind. We think too much and feel too little. More than machinery we need humanity. More than cleverness we need kindness and gentleness.

Soldiers! don’t give yourselves to brutes - men who despise you - enslave you - who regiment your lives - tell you what to do - what to think and what to feel! Who drill you - diet you - treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don’t give yourselves to these unnatural men

In the 17th Chapter of St Luke it is written: “the Kingdom of God is within man” - not one man nor a group of men, but in all men! In you! You, the people have the power - the power to create machines. The power to create happiness! You, the people, have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure.

Here is a transcript of the entire speech.


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Many people have often wondered why humans are able to be wonderfully good and immensely evil in equal measure. Overthinking this complexity can make you get a rush of blood to the head.
But the funny thing about humans is that if properly motivated and guided, we can actually rise up and sing our own song. And that's all what matters about us.

How to Avoid Living like a Signpost

PHOTO | Gerd Altmann (Pixabay)

Depending on how you look at it, a signpost is the epitome of altruism. It shows you the way. It points you in the right direction.

Over the weekend, I read some pages of Ayn Rand's 'The Virtue of Selfishness', where she takes a rather contrarian view of altruism.

Ayn Rand dissects altruism, and the moral questions it lumps together. One is what values are, the other being who should be the beneficiary of values.
The problem with this is the widely accepted notion that any action taken for the benefit of others is good.
On the other hand, a concern with one's self interests (the exact dictionary definition of selfishness) is deemed evil.

There is a loophole in here, if you look closely. But that notwithstanding, today's post is about oneself and why there is a danger in not looking inward as much as we should.

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There is something called Moral Licensing. In my opinion, Malcolm Gladwell, in 'The Lady Vanishes' (S01E01) episode of Revisionist History, gives the most succinct explanation of what this social psychology concept is. He says:

Past good deeds can liberate individuals to engage in behaviors that are immoral, unethical or otherwise problematic, behaviors that they would otherwise avoid for fear of feeling or appearing immoral.

We all see this in action every day in life. Locally, the best example is a politician who does one huge, very public albeit insincere act of benevolence (such as a huge donation at a fundraiser) that gets him elected, then spends an entire 5 year term in office embezzling public funds and engaging in corruption.

This point was further amplified by Evelyn Waithira (Muithirania) during a interview with Kameme TV. She speaks of a man whose work is to announce throughout the village of a 'Baraza' that he himself doesn't care to attend.

I have admittedly often found myself engulfed in this moral licensing phenomenon. Time and again, I find myself doing the very things I have publicly and on record, spoken against on this blog and elsewhere. At times with reckless abandon.
Since I began posting on The Walkabout a decade ago, many are the times I have fallen short of what I write about here, stuff that's meant to offer insight, inspire us and aid in self discovery.

However, all is not lost.


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Many years ago when I was a University student at JKUAT, I used to have regular chats (actual face-to-face conversations) with my pal Doreen. At the time, Kiss 100.3 FM was pretty new and played actual "Fresh Hits."

Now, the only problem with that is just how repetitively any new song was played on Kiss 100. 'Redeemer' by Nicole C. Mullen was a new release at the time, and not an hour would pass without hearing that song play again and again on Kiss.

One hot afternoon, we are walking along the main corridor (it runs from Assembly Hall to Hall 6) and someone in Hall 3 who had obviously made "The Big Switch" was tuned in to Kiss 100 and as expected, 'Redeemer' was blasting away on his stereo. I pointed out how Kiss FM is ruining our listening experience by overplaying such amazing songs.

Doreen's view was different, that such repetitive radio-play wasn't necessarily a bad thing as it gave that particular Gospel track much needed exposure on a secular radio station where it would reach those who wouldn't otherwise tune in to Family FM (a christian station).

We had a small argument over this, and at some point, she asked: "Are you even listening to yourself speaking?"

It is due to this very statement that I've had to, almost a decade later, re-examine myself as I look back to the things I have been posting here, but seldom practise in life.
And it is that moment of clarity that first came my way thanks to Doreen at JKUAT, that insight which has again been brought to my attention by Ayn Rand, Malcolm Gladwell and Evelyn Waithira,  that I have elected to do the needful and walk a different road.



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In the previous post I shared an excerpt from Safe Haven in the Alcoholics Anonymous Big Book [PDF], but omitted the first sentence. It now reads like this:

Now willing to listen and take suggestions, I have found that the process of discovering who I really am, begins with knowing who I really don't want to be.

And best believe me, just as Doreen advised many years ago, learning to actually listen to oneself makes a difference. A BIG one. There is a conversation I need to have with me, and that calls for a moment to myself.