Why Evidence still doesn't Change your Mind

I've often stated that we don't engage in political discourse here on The Walkabout. But truth be said, unless we have successfully transitioned into sovereign individuals and managed to go seasteading in international waters, politics will continue to adversely affect our lives.

In Kenya, we voted for the current leadership in August 2017. The process itself took much longer, thanks to a repeat Presidential election on October 2017. You'd then assume that Kenyans would have made better choices after witnessing the institutionalized corruption, impunity in wastage of public resources, shameless embezzlement and wanton plunder from public coffers. The years between 2013 and 2017 should have served as a lesson that neccessitated changes but not much changed. Kenyans went again and voted for different monkeys from the same forest.

This failure to correctly judge situations, to repeat the same mistakes is often driven by a number of factors. Some of the causes have publicly been shared by scholars in the past, let's have a dig at some of the reasons we so hopelessly fail at making value decisions.


Odds and Value Estimation

As outlined on the Farnam Street blog, Dan Gilbert says that humans are works in progress who mistakenly think they're finished. In other words, we wrongly imagine the same person we are today is the same person we shall be till death.

In his 2005 TED Talk, Dan Gilbert explored why we make bad decisions.
For starters, the expected value of any action is a product of the odds that one will gain something from the act, and the gain in value i.e.

Expected Value = Odds of Gain x Value of Gain.

But it turns out that we usually attach value to things based on their past value, instead of the current value on the basis of context. In other words, based on what is possible.

It is quite an interesting and insightful talk, which ends with this thought-provoking statement:

We underestimate the odds of our future pains, and overestimate the value of our present pleasures.


Confirmation Bias

This refers to the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs and theories.

Writing in The New Yorker, Elizabeth Colbert points to limitations of reason, with the desire to win arguments taking precedence over straight thinking.
It so happens that when we form impressions, they persist and stay with us.

But there's a reason why once we form beliefs and the evidence for such beliefs has been totally refuted, we don't make appropriate revisions in such beliefs.
One explanation of this, is how evolution has fashioned us into social beings who collaborate and live in groups.

Accordingly, it is all about cooperation. And as James Clear writes:

We don't always believe things because they are correct. Sometimes we belief things because they make us look good to the people we care about. 

This is why we continue to hold on to beliefs that are factually false, but socially accurate.



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We have in the past talked about trying to wash our hands in dirty water, or just being blind with one's eyes wide open. Humans seem to be irresistibly lured by things that actually harm them, things that may seem good, but aren't beneficial. Toxic things.

Angels and Life's Crossroads

'Angels are dispatched from heaven to inspire people who are at a crossroads in their lives.'

First off, this is a comeback post. I haven't posted on The Walkabout since January 2015.
A lot has happened since that time. There has been so much to write about, and it is my hope that I'll be able to distill all the insight, inspiration and self discovery that has been piling up in my Draft Posts. All in all, I'll endeavor to make regular posts.
That in itself, is a good thing.

Another good thing is that we're having an exciting addition on this journey, on this blog. This person has a more inspiring story to tell than I ever could.
I honestly cannot wait to read my friend's first post, and many more for days and years to come.

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Well, I do have a copy of the Devotional Study Bible, NIV version. I read it every once in a while, unlike years past when I spent time with it every single evening. Not that I no longer read the good book, I still do. I just happen to have a more accessible one - the ever present YouVersion Bible on my Android device.

Isaiah is my favorite book, and this is how it is introduced:

This eloquent prophet lived at a time when the nation of Judah could either regain its footing or begin a dangerous slide downwards. Isaiah was uncompromising, and his "telling it as it is" eventually cost him his life. It is believed that King Manasseh had him fastened between two planks of wood and his body was sawed in half.


Truth be told, we often find ourselves at a crossroads. At times, we feel that we have no choice and have to wade through the murky inevitability that Catch-22 situations bring with them.

And before you say that one always has a choice in any given situation, some choices may be as difficult as a Buridan's ass choice or as limiting as a Hobson's Horse option.
All in all, life is inundated with circumstances that call for external input and much needed assistance.

It is during such situations that you get to meet people. People who are in situations where you can actually help. People who have a genuine need that in your heart of hearts, do realize you can help meet.

You look around and quickly realize that there is indeed a method to the madness that life can at times be. That things indeed happen for a reason. And as Esther came to realize many years ago,

And who knows but that you have come to your royal position for such a time as this?

Earlier in the verse (Esther 4:14) the matter of failing to do the needful is addressed. For Esther, relief and deliverance for the Jews would've come from someplace else but her family would have perished.
Thing is, it is never by accident that you get to meet some people in your life. It is always for a reason.




As always, I am allowed to go back to LOST, which inspired the very first post on The Walkabout.
Here, we meet Jack and Locke expressing varied viewpoints about what possibly brought them all into the mysterious island after Oceanic Flight 815 crashed. It is for a reason and a purpose, says Locke in this video.


All in all, life's happenings are always for a reason. It is upon you to find out how the circumstances you find yourself in, and those with whom you interact, are meant to bring out your purpose and your destiny.
Take time and find out why you're meeting the very people life keeps bringing your way. There is a reason why. And once you find out the reason, be sure to do the needful.

I end with Graham's famous opening lines in the movie Crash:

It's the sense of touch... I think we miss that touch so much, that we crash into each other, just so we can feel something.

PS: This one is for you F.G.N.
Thank you.


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Touched by an Angel was a popular show on KTN Kenya some years back. I rarely watched it, but still purpose to someday get the DVD set and experience all these angels.
Meanwhile, in a song I first heard in 1999 on Family FM, one of these angels, Della Reese, already promises to walk with you...

Accepting Ourselves Unconditionally

"We ask ourselves, Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small does not serve the world. There is nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you."

- Marianne Williamson (Our Deepest Fear).

Less than a week ago, I engaged in lengthy discourse with a most interesting friend. Much later, I realized that one of the salient takeaways from our discussion was the pressing issue of unconditional acceptance, vulnerability and human frailty.

You see, we live in a very demanding world that continually seeks the best of us. We feel that we need to look our best, make the best impressions and continually project perfection in how we look, talk and do things.

Interestingly, we are not perfect. Human beings make errors, have frailties and fall short in many ways. I've often wondered why some people wear make up, subject themselves to painful and costly plastic surgery, and mask scars in a vain effort to portray themselves as something they are not. This, I believe, is due to a vanity that makes us feel unworthy as we are and unacceptable to both ourselves and others unless we present ourselves as something different and much better than we already are.

For a long time, I have always held the view that any person who cannot accept me as I am, anyone who fails to judge me on the basis of my knowledge and skills, such a person doesn't deserve my attention. Since I made a decision to no longer seek other people's approval in pursuing my goals, finding purpose and in the way I lead my own life, I have deliberately stayed away from persons who dismiss me on the basis of a myopic understanding of my current circumstances.

We need to accept ourselves as we are. We should understand that we are enough. True, we may feel vulnerable and exposed as our true selves. But that is what and who we are. Sugar-coating, pretenses and embellishment makes us more acceptable, but vastly undermines our true worth.

Following is a TED Talk on Vulnerability that Brene Brown delivered back in 2010.


In the video above, Brene talks about the power of vulnerability.
She ends her talk in a most profound way:

I'll leave you with this. This is what I have found: to let ourselves be seen, deeply seen, vulnerably seen; to love with our whole hearts, even though there's no guarantee -- and that's really hard, and I can tell you as a parent, that's excruciatingly difficult -- to practice gratitude and joy in those moments of terror, when we're wondering, "Can I love you this much? Can I believe in this passionately? Can I be this fierce about this?" just to be able to stop and, instead of catastrophizing what might happen, to say, "I'm just so grateful, because to feel this vulnerable means I'm alive." And the last, which I think is probably the most important, is to believe that we're enough. Because when we work from a place, I believe, that says, "I'm enough," then we stop screaming and start listening, we're kinder and gentler to the people around us, and we're kinder and gentler to ourselves.

Here's the transcript to Brene Brown's TED Talk.

Beginning with the End in Mind

In the last post, I recounted what largely occupied my mind after spending most of Saturday with my dear friend K. That post about The Fullness of Time did not capture the full extent of our insightful and thought provoking discourse throughout the day.

As is often the practice, I saved the best for last and today, I am pleased to present part 2 of my ruminations.
In a nutshell, this post comprises thoughts on why we wake up every morning, why we even plan or get anything done at all... essentially, the very qualification of hope.

It should be noted that in this post, I'll liberally use some happenings in my own life to illustrate some of the salient points.

Destiny: Purpose or Fate?

When I resigned from formal employment back in December 2005, I was determined to never return to what I invariably refer to as a rat race where consumerism is unnecessarily glorified. I had and still hold the firm belief that there is more to life than just making money and then spending it all. True, there are different strokes for different folk, and I also appreciate that it is "to each his/her own" in most things in life. As such, what has worked for me may not necessarily work for others.

Looking back, I'm proud that I've been and continue to realize my goals first as a freelancer and now as a creative entrepreneur. All thanks to self employment.

The reason I bring this up is that when I quit my job, I knew that my destiny would be shaped by that very decision. I was however keen to do all the needful to ensure that it'd be a function of purpose, and not fate from then on. I've in the past written about destiny, purpose and fate here.

It is in setting up the goals (some lofty) that I perpetually aspire to achieve that I've find my purpose in life. When I began, I knew where I wanted to end up. I am not there yet and often times are in repair, but knowing where I'm headed makes all the difference. Sometimes, it takes a strong will, a stronger won't or simply knowing what you don't want to become.

All Things are Created Twice

At the aforementioned times, I hadn't come across Steven Covey's 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.

For example, my modest den is scheduled for some modifications, comprising enlarging my living room and adding an extra floor. Even before I start sourcing for construction materials, I have already seen the resulting structure in my mind time and again. This is well explained in the 2nd Habit: Beginning with the End in Mind together with the following points:

• All things are created twice. There is a mental (first) creation, and a physical (second) creation. The physical creation follows the mental, just as a building follows a blueprint.
• Begin with the End in Mind means to begin each day, task, or project with a clear vision of your desired direction and destination, and then continue by flexing your proactive muscles to make things happen.
• If your ladder is not leaning against the right wall, every step you take gets you to the wrong place faster.

Hope Doesn't Disappoint

With K, we long agonized in trying to draw the line between blatantly assuming that things will definitely go a certain way in line with our desires, or blindingly hoping even when it is clear that the outcome will most likely be different.

In matters of hope, I never fail to quote the following:

Hope is the bridge that connects you to where you want to go,
Faith assures you that the bridge will hold,
Love gives you a reason to cross it.

Thing is, I see no need to hope for obvious things that are in the process of happening, inasmuch as there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.
For me, Hope and Faith often work in concert, as outlined in the Bible:

"Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."
- Hebrews 11:1 (KJV)

"And hope does not disappoint us..."
- Romans 5:5 (NIV)

To echo Barack Obama's words on hope:

Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, and to work for it, and to fight for it.
Hope is the belief that destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by the men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.

In my mind, beginning with the end in mind is what makes one go beyond freshman year in college, graduation with honors being the ultimate goal. It's what makes parents spend huge amounts educating their kids, with no assurance that the kids will not drop out or otherwise not work hard in school.
Beginning with the end in mind is why businesses are started, with the goal of breaking even, returning a profit and ultimately increasing the owner or shareholders' worth. It is what lets an expectant mother love her unborn child, with no way of knowing if the baby will be born at all or even once delivered, end up vexing her a la Kevin.

In sum, life offers no guarantees. There are no assurances that loving people will make them love us back. Only the knowledge that such love is not in vain no matter how it goes is what keeps the love going. By extension, nobody knows what tomorrow holds. The mere hope that the day will be much better if we do something to make it so, is all that matters. After all, of what use would life be if we all knew what is in store for us? Methinks that is the same reason immortality isn't exactly that much appealing.

Not knowing what will happen next is in my mind the best incentive to change things and thereby shape our destiny.

Finally, another photo of the amazingly beautiful place K and I visited as we discussed the above.

Searching for and Finding Meaning and Hope even in Life's Struggles

"The will to meaning is the basic motivation for human life." -

Viktor Frankl (Holocaust survivor)

A Better Understanding

Seeking meaning and purpose is perhaps the singular reason that human beings progress. This is what makes life worth living, as we seek a deeper understanding of ourselves and life, despite its attendant complexities.

Even in the face of suffering, humanity is still defined by a will that is largely predicated on this very search for wisdom, purpose and direction.

Cries from the Heart

As we encounter many things in life, we still keep believing that there are answers to many of life's questions. At times, we get drained and want more while on this search. But we still continue to believe.

While some seek understanding in the sciences, technology and varied belief systems, others search within. Still, others seek answers from the supernatural or from a higher power. All these are Cries from the Heart which have continued since time began.

Stories of Struggle and Hope

Human struggle is as ubiquitous as the air we breath. It is indeed true that life is not a bed of roses. And even when we insist on looking and focusing on the roses amongst thorns, we cannot wish away the thorns which keep pricking our sides, we still have to attend to various pertinent issues in our lives.

Cries from the Heart is a book written by Johanne Christoph Arnold. He is a counsellor and pastor who has served over twenty five years. He has written several other books, many of which you can get on his website.

Book Contents

CONTENTS

to the reader 7

foreword 9

1. searching – God finds an atheist 11

2. finding – is someone really there? 18

3. believing – even when children die? 24

4. universality – call it what you will 31

5. god’s messengers – angels at work 38

6. emotional suffering – when you can’t pray 45

7. illness – where the doctor leaves off 54

8. despair – talking to a wall 69

9. attitude – thank God I’m not like that! 83

10. reverence – meet your maker 95

11. letting go – my will be done 105

12. remorse – when you’ve messed up 114

13. protection – alive to tell it 126

14. selflessness – someone needs you 134

15. service – words are not enough 140

16. contemplation – be quiet and listen 149

17. worship – giving thanks in a death camp 160

18. unity – divided we fall 166

19. marriage – unlocking horns 171

20. unanswered prayer – isn’t “no” an answer? 179

21. miracles – what do you expect? 186

22. prayer in daily life – keeping the faith 199

23. faithfulness – one thing never changes 207

Get the FREE eBook

Let me know if you'd like me to Email you this eBook. You can however download it directly at ChristophArnold.com.

I hope you'll like it and find it worth your while. Be sure to share with others too.

Happy reading!